Image of New YearLast year, the Arras People newsletter made some predictions on the state of project management during 2010.  Let’s see if they were accurate:



The Current Case for Project Management Earning Chartered Status Will Fall Short



Correct: No news on the progress of earning Chartered Status.



Graduates Will Struggle Even More



Correct:  It is increasingly hard for graduates to find work, and there have been demonstrations against tuition fees too.



There Will Be More PMO-Qualified People Than Ever Before



Correct: While I don’t have the figures, it certainly feels as if there are more PMO qualified people about, and a renewed focus on the value of PMOs as well.



The Jobs Will Go To The Best Self-Marketing Candidates, Thus Increasing Frustrations of Possibly Better Qualified Candidates



Correct: While I was researching my book, Social Media for Project Mangers, I came across recruiters who said they do use the web to screen and source potential candidates, so those who are good at self-promotion in a non-alienating way must be rising to the top of the pack.



Identity Crisis - Proving Who You Are Will Increase



Maybe:  I’ve not noticed an increased requirement for Criminal Records background checks, but with an online presence, it’s harder to embellish your credentials.



Momentum for Green-Related Change Will Remain Stagnant



No: While I agree that there hasn’t been an awful lot of movement on green-related change, there has been some this year.  Rich Maltzman and David Shirley’s new book, Green Project Management, was published this year, with plenty of case studies of projects being run in response to green initiatives.  BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT, launched a Green IT certificate and accompanying book.  Green is high on the agenda for PMI, with one of this year’s North America Congress speakers being community revitilisation expert Storm Cunningham.  The Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme (CRC) started in April this year and I think that as companies start to realise what this will mean for them in terms of their position in the league tables, there will be more green-led change projects during 2011.



Projects Will Continue to Fail



Sort of: Projects do continue to fail and I think there will always be projects that fail, but results this year have been mixed.  For example, the NAO’s Major Projects report this year says that cost performance has been broadly stable and timescale slippage is significantly reduced on last year.



So what will we see in 2011?



I think 2011 will show a slow increase in the amount of organisations adopting cloud computing and new technologies like social media and collaboration tools behind their firewall.  Project managers will in turn have to start using these ways to communicate and collaborate.  I first spoke in public about this in 2008 and even this year I’ve been surprised at how long it has taken some people to ‘get it’.  I think while some organisations will adopt new technologies and make a success of them quickly, others will take a long, long time to get any Web 2.0 tools off the ground and will consequently miss out on the benefits.



There’ll be more specialised qualifications launched. This year we’ve had OBASHI, MoV, and Earned Value, amongst others.  I think both PMI and APMG will be bringing out more niche qualifications next year, and with it we’ll get the general backlash of these associations promoting specialism for financial gain.  Every new qualification will have to prove itself, and those holding new credentials will also have to show that they can apply them in industry to add value to the organisation.