2012. The year of the Olympic Games in London. Already, my capital city is awash with people proclaiming what a great Games it is going to be and how we are all in this together. Just as well, then, that ESI has proclaimed that 2012 is the year of project collaboration, as all the project teams working on the venues, logistics, ticketing and events will need to be working collaboratively to make it all work.
The experts at ESI have come up with 10 trends for this year. They are:
1. Programme management will gain momentum, but resources remain in short supply
Apparently, this is the year where large initiatives undertaken by corporations and government agencies will be recognised for what they are and aren't: namely programmes, not projects. I wonder if the UK is already more advanced in this respect. We’ve had the MSP certification for a while now, and programme management is a recognised career path. However, I’m pleased that the prediction is that we will see more investments made in competency models, training, methodology development, tool use, and career pathing to ensure that professionals who carry the title Programme Manager are fit for the role.
2. Collaboration software solutions will become an essential business tool for project teams
This year it’s about the value that tools can offer, not the fact of having tools themselves. This speaks to the theme of collaboration, and ESI say that as collaboration is central to project management, having a site which allows project artefacts to be created, shared, and distributed within a repository that provides Web-based access and critical functions such as automatic distribution and notification, version control, and user authentication, greatly enhances productivity.
"From the ascendancy of social media to the structured implementation of collaboration tools by the PMO and the steady rise of communities of practice, we are fast approaching a tipping point," said J. LeRoy Ward, PMP, PgMP, Executive Vice President, Product Strategy & Management, ESI International. "Those project organisations that don't exploit such collaborative channels and technology will risk missing the most promising combination of force multipliers of the decade."
3. Learning transfer will become the new mantra, but with little structured application
The PMO comes into its own this year, and the experts say that PMO leaders will be focusing on learning transfer. According to ESI, while L&D and business heads agree that sustained learning is a sound idea, very few organisations will invest in a formal process to make it happen. In 2012 they say that we will see many organisations discussing the importance of learning transfer without really putting in place a structured approach to ensure it happens. Oh well. Maybe in 2013!
4. Agile blends with waterfall for a new "hybrid" approach
Agile. Yes, it’s everywhere, even in waterfall projects.
5. Smarter project investments will require a stronger marriage between project management and business process management
Process improvement projects: I don’t know many project managers who jump at the opportunity to do these, but apparently in the financial services industry, and specifically in the insurance sector, there will be a continued focus on performing business processes as efficiently as possible to drive down operating costs. ESI say that when new projects are proposed, their value will be judged to a large extent on the impact they will have on the organisation's business processes, so this looks like it will become part of the criteria for project selection. They recommend that project managers get to understand business process management.
6. Internal certifications in corporations and federal agencies will eclipse the PMP
This is a brave prediction. ESI say that in the U.S. government as well as Fortune 500 corporations, a hierarchy of internal credentials has overshadowed the PMP in terms of prominence. It doesn’t comment on how transferable these internal credentials are: I would guess not very, and that externally recognised credentials will still remain important for job seekers.
7. More PMO heads will measure effectiveness on business results
What? They aren’t doing this already?
8. Good project managers will buck unemployment trends
This prediction is excellent news, and given the level of investment and interest that some industries are seeing (the increase in the number of London coffee shops made it into the news this week, so some areas are still growing despite the recession), project managers look almost recession-proof.
ESI say that good project managers are hard to find and that there is a “hunger” for project management basics, in particular risk management, which will continue to surge in 2012, especially in such countries as India and China where project manager attrition rates are high and continuous training of new staff is critical.
9. Client-centric project management will outpace the triple constraint
I completely agree with this prediction, not least because my own book on the subject, Customer-Centric Project Management, which I’m writing with IT expert Phil Peplow, comes out later this year. In the book we argue that the constraint of the triple constraint is no longer appropriate for today’s workplace, and that value is defined by the customer. Plus we offer a handy way to work out what ‘value’ actually is and how to measure it regularly.
ESI agree, and predict that while the triple constraint remains important, it is no longer the be-all-and-end-all for project success. They say that the new definition of project success is that a project can exceed its time and cost estimates so long as the client determines that it is successful by whatever criteria they use. Hurrah!
10. HR professionals will seek assessments to identify high-potential project managers
How are we going to recruit project managers this year? Apparently it’s all about assessment. While ESI don’t say exactly how these assessments are going to take place, think back to the assessment centres you did as part of the milkround after university, and my guess is that the recruitment process will look similar to that, except with fewer people in brand new suits clutching brand new CVs.