The first step in the risk management process is figuring out what you’re up against. What kinds of things threaten your ability to deliver what you’ve promised? It isn’t always very easy - it all begins with the uncertainty of not knowing exactly how things are going to turn out. This is just another way of saying that many aspects of projects are unpredictable, despite our best efforts to plan for the unknown.
From these sources of uncertainty spring problems. Problems are what you need to uncover. You’re looking for specific potential problems and as many potential problems as you can think of. But how do you go about identifying problems? There’s no magic formula for identifying potential threats to your project. It’s going to require specific knowledge of the project, significant brainpower, and the ability to speculate based on all of you cumulative expert knowledge. Identifying potential problems as a team is an ideal way to accomplish that – and it’s really your best way to capture as many potential problem scenarios as possible.
Begin by getting the entire team together - reserve at least two to four hours, depending upon project size and complexity. For very large projects, it may require multiple sessions to get it down right. Gather every piece of documentation you can and urge others to do the same. Typical background documents may include Statement of Work, the Requirements Document, the Project Definition Document, and the business case. Other extremely valuable documents or inputs will be your project schedule, your resource information, and a Responsibility Assignment Matrix – if one exists separately from your project schedule detail. Finally, assemble any relevant supporting documentation, such as basis of estimate sheets, planning assumptions, and the network diagram used for schedule development.
The point of all of this is that you want as many documents as possible on hand to help stimulate thinking about potential problems. A checklist can also be quite helpful for stimulating thoughtful speculation. List as many potential problems as you can, using brainstorming techniques. Although you don’t want to stifle creativity, try to keep the list to a reasonable size (perhaps 30-50, depending on project size and complexity).
As you list potential problems that threaten your project, don’t lose sight of the concept of uncertainty. Remember that the lack of information, knowledge, and understanding is really your enemy. In other words, think of your biggest “threats” as those that have the greatest potential to throw you off course the furthest - in an unfavorable direction.